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Prediction for CME (2023-10-14T14:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-10-14T14:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27301/-1
CME Note: This very faint NW CME is barely seen in C3 and is completely covered by a data gap in COR2A. Its source is an eruption in AR 3466 (N09W27), seen as dimming around the AR and as post-eruptive arcade mostly to the NNW of the AR, as seen in AIA 193/304 starting 2023-10-14T13Z. Arrival signature was analyzed by Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team: there is likely a SIR signature on 2023-10-18: a shock driven by this SIR (an increase in proton density, bulk speed, and ion temperature). There is likely no sheath region seen after the SIR signature: following the shock, you see the compression region with increased proton density, and bulk speed (the speed is gradually increasing and so is ion temperature). After that, we are in the high-speed stream with lower proton density and enhanced ion temperature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-18T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/27303/1
Model Inputs:
2023-10-14T14:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=28.0, Lat.=19.0, Speed=428.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2023-10-14T22:00Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact: Glancing Blow
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-10-18T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-10-18T05:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231014_220000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 82.40 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-10-14T21:36Z

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